The future of social cohesion

Few sociological topics are currently being discussed as intensively as the division of society. While some are already seeing trench warfare and U.S.-like conditions, others are reassuring themselves that that there is still agreement on the most important social issues. But what will this look like in a few years’ time? Of course, nobody can see into the future. Nevertheless, it makes sense to sketch out various scenarios – to start a dialogue about these future possibilities and to help shape them instead of just allowing them to happen. This also strengthens our democracy.

Laura-Kristine Krause is Managing Director of the nonprofit organization More in Common. Through a strategic partnership with the Robert Bosch Stiftung, the organization is further expanding its role as a central player in Germany’s cohesion and democracy promotion scene. Based on various research results that More in Common analyzes together with opinion research institutes, they provide an overview of current social cohesion. What the results mean for our future coexistence is shown in three rather optimistic and two rather pessimistic scenarios. These were not developed by More in Common, but were derived from the conversation with Laura-Kristine Krause and other socio-political research findings.

A basic prerequisite for a strong society is the feeling that things are fundamentally fair in it. However, Germany currently seems to have lost this feeling. “Of those we surveyed, 80 percent think that things are rather unfair in this country,” says Krause. “That’s a peak value. In 2019, it was 63 percent, and this figure even fell to around 50 percent during the pandemic.” For better cohesion in the future, this feeling of injustice would therefore have to decrease significantly again.

Here is another exciting finding from the More in Common surveys, conducted together with the Verian (formerly Kantar) Public opinion research institute in mid-2023, for which more than 2,000 people were interviewed in online surveys and focus groups: Most Germans perceive their country as divided. However, when asked along which lines this division runs, those interviewed rarely mentioned factors such as east/west, old/young, or urban/rural – which talk shows and newspaper essays often cite as the reason for mutual alienation. “Instead, the number one reason given in the surveys, by far, is an increasing divide between rich and poor,” says Krause. More affordable housing, falling living costs, and a more balanced distribution of income and wealth are factors that could reinforce the feeling of living in a fair country characterized by solidarity rather than division.

An increasing lack of transparency, along with corruption and other scandals in the political arena, are causing more and more people to lose trust in politics and turn their backs on democratic processes. In addition to uncertain voter turnout, this is reflected in growing political apathy. “Trust in democracy has already deteriorated significantly,” says Krause. “For example, 68 percent of those we surveyed said they felt let down by politicians during the 2023/24 cost-of-living crisis.” She says people lack confidence that politicians and the economy will turn crises to good use – such as plotting the right course for the future. In a future in which this trust continues to decline even further, society would be less and less willing to support political decisions and accept democratic outcomes. To prevent this from happening, positive visions of the future are needed that go beyond the day-to-day minutiae and formulate inspiring utopias. Transparency and openness are also needed to dispel citizens’ mistrust of “those at the top.”

Since the success of Facebook and Instagram, the term “social networks” no longer refers mostly to neighbors or friends, but to digital services. However, strengthening analogue social connections is a crucial prerequisite for social cohesion. This strengthening could take the form of newly opened community centers in small towns that serve as a point of contact for all age groups and all social classes. A boom in smartphone apps that provide low-threshold volunteering opportunities and bring people who want to get involved in their region together in an uncomplicated way. Mixed neighborhoods instead of increasingly segregated neighborhoods based on prices for people with different incomes.

“62 percent of Germans say that they feel Germany is divided,” says Krause, referring to another survey conducted by More in Common in January and February 2024 with research partner Verian. “But if you ask about individual topics, you sometimes come across a great deal of consensus and values that many people share.” More real encounters in public spaces could lead to people rediscovering more common ground than the – often deliberately polarizing – social media platforms allow.

According to surveys, around 10 percent of Germans currently try – often deliberately – to avoid the news. 65 percent do this occasionally. This phenomenon, known as “news avoidance” or “news fatigue,” could increase even further in the coming years. The reason given is the often predominantly negative news situation, which can affect peoples’ moods and lead to feelings of helplessness and powerlessness. Added to this is the ever-increasing competition from digital entertainment content: smartphone games, gossip, an Instagram feed full of puppy dogs – which for many people is a more attractive alternative to news about UN resolutions and budget deficits, especially in times of climate crisis, war, and conflict. “However, a decline in news consumption can mean that we as a society no longer have the same information base,” warns Krause. “This then jeopardizes our ability to talk and negotiate.”

Every year, several hundred thousand people move away from Germany – in some years even more than a million. At the same time, German society is getting older and older. More people are retiring instead of entering the labor market. Which means that large numbers of people have to move to Germany to ensure that there is enough labor and that the shortage of skilled workers does not become even worse. It is estimated that 1.5 million immigrants are needed each year. The successful integration of migrants is a key factor in ensuring social cohesion. “In many ways, Germany still doesn’t see itself as a country of immigration,” says Krause. Yet the topic of migration has a lot to do with belonging: “And that doesn’t just include new migration. Many people have been living here for decades, and for many of them, it still isn’t clear whether they can really feel included when Germany talks about a ‘we’.” Truly successful integration depends on a variety of factors – from educational opportunities and the recognition of qualifications to good access to childcare. Yet the result would be a society that sees cultural diversity as a strength and is characterized by mutual respect and understanding.

Note: Not all of the scenarios described are desirable in the opinion of the Robert Bosch Stiftung and the expert interviewed. Opinions also differ on the likelihood of their realization.